On Dubai's waterfront, off-plan has made some buyers a lot of money and left others holding units few people want to buy. The difference wasn't the view. It was the price they paid compared with what finished apartments nearby were selling for.

The pitch

Every waterfront launch is sold the same way. The coastline is limited, nobody is making more of it, so prices can only go one way.

The coastline is limited. But that doesn't tell you whether the price in front of you is a good one. The only way to find out is to look at what actually happened to people who bought off-plan on the water before you, and at what the market is paying today. So that's what this piece does, using Dubai Land Department records through DXBinteract, for one-bedroom apartments, measured in price per square foot.

What happened to off-plan buyers on the water

At Port de La Mer, the developer sold 1BRs at about AED 1,800 per sq ft from 2019 to 2021, at or below what owners were getting on resale. Finished 1BRs there now resell at 2,760. Those buyers are up about 53%.

At Emaar Beachfront, buyers who paid 1,900 in 2018, when the developer's price was close to resale, are up about 68% against today's finished resale of 3,200. Between 2023 and 2025, the developer charged 4,400 to 4,900, which was 30 to 45% above resale at the time. Those units haven't been handed over yet. On paper they still resell close to what was paid, but only 11 of those units were resold this year, 88% fewer than the same period last year, while resales of finished 1BRs there rose 86%. Meanwhile, finished 1BRs in the same community sell at 3,200, which is 27 to 35% below what those buyers paid.

One exception is worth stating. Emaar Beachfront buyers in 2020 paid about 31% above resale and still did well, because they bought just before the biggest run in a decade. A premium over resale has only worked when a boom followed it.

So the pattern is simple. Off-plan bought at or near the resale price paid off. Off-plan bought far above it has depended on a boom.

Where Maritime City and Dubai Islands stand today

Both islands are still mostly under construction, and that's the first thing to understand. Almost no finished apartments have resold there yet. In Maritime City, only three finished 1BRs were resold this year. Most resales are off-plan units in older, lower-tier projects, so they can't tell you what a new premium tower will be worth either. When you buy here, there's no local price to check yours against.

So the only fair benchmark is finished waterfront elsewhere in the city.

A Maritime City 1BR bought off-plan costs almost the same per sq ft as a finished Emaar Beachfront 1BR: a community with its own beach, a proven resale market and tenants paying rent today. A Dubai Islands unit costs more than a finished one at Port de La Mer. The off-plan buyer pays a finished price, without the finished building.

These aren't identical places, and it's worth being clear about how. Emaar Beachfront and Port de La Mer are finished beach communities built mainly for living. Maritime City is a mixed-use district with a working maritime cluster, and hotels and other uses planned, which could support demand in a way a beach community can't. Dubai Islands is different again: several islands, many developers large and small, and a mix of apartments, villas and plots, so its averages blend very different products and need checking project by project.

Still, these two are the closest finished waterfront apartment markets in Dubai, and so far the market hasn't paid extra for Maritime City's mix. Its own resales, off-plan and finished, trade below the developer's price. If you believe that mix will make a finished Maritime City 1BR worth more than one at Emaar Beachfront, that premium is the bet you're making. Know it's a bet before you pay for it.

The difference shows up in what you give up while you wait. A finished Emaar Beachfront 1BR earns about 6% a year in gross rent, roughly 24% of the price over four years of construction, before service charges. The off-plan buyer earns nothing in that time.

Then it comes down to what each island turns out to be worth when it's finished. Here's what happens at handover if prices stay where finished waterfront is today, on a plan with 50% paid during construction and 50% at handover, plus the 4% DLD fee:

So at today's prices, Maritime City's best realistic outcome is to end up where a buyer of a finished Emaar Beachfront unit is right now, minus four years of rent. Dubai Islands has a little more room, but only if it finishes priced like Emaar Beachfront. A payment plan spreads the cost, but it also magnifies whatever happens to the price.

Early buyers in Maritime City have done very well. LIV Maritime units there resold in August for 83 to 126% more than their owners paid. Those owners bought at launch prices well below today's. That fits the pattern above: the money was made by buying at the right price, not just by buying on the water.

The rule

Off-plan should be priced at least 15 to 20% below a comparable finished unit. That discount pays you for three things a ready buyer doesn't carry: years without rent, a handover date that can slip, and a resale market that can dry up while you wait. At Emaar Beachfront this year, the number of off-plan resales fell 88%.

Applied to Maritime City and Dubai Islands, the rule gives a fair off-plan price of about AED 2,560 to 2,720 per sq ft if you expect them to finish like Emaar Beachfront, and 2,210 to 2,350 if they finish like Port de La Mer. Today's developer prices sit above both ranges, in Maritime City by 14% even against the more generous one.

You can check any waterfront project in five minutes:

1. Note the developer's price per sq ft.

2. Look up off-plan resales in the same project, or in projects of the same quality. A district average mixes old and new stock and can mislead you either way.

3. Look up finished resales in the same district. If there aren't enough, use the nearest finished waterfront of similar quality. If the developer's price isn't at least 15 to 20% below that, wait.

The coastline is scarce. A good entry price on it is scarcer. If you'd like to know when one comes up in Maritime City or Dubai Islands, get in touch.